Terri Georgeta

538 Presidential Model 2024 Model. Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with fundamental factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. The 2024 fivethirtyeight model is, i think, similar to the 2024 economist model, but they give different forecasts.

As in our presidential model, we account for changes in how easy it is to vote in each state based on the cost of voting index, as easing barriers to voting tends. The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows president biden more likely to win than former president trump — biden’s best odds since may.